L'Affaire Yaalon

Recently, the Israeli Defense Minister got himself into hot water for saying what everyone else has been thinking.  Referring to the Crimean crisis, he stated that:

“If you sit and wait at home, the terrorism will come again. Even if you hunker down, it will come. This is a war of civilizations. If your image is feebleness, it doesn’t pay in the world. Nobody will replace the United States as global policeman. I hope the United States comes to its senses. If it doesn’t, it will challenge the world order, and the United States is the one that will suffer.”

This made the State Department go ballistic, caused Kerry to call Bibi, and apparently involved a request from the American side that Yaalon resign from his post!

My thoughts on this whole affair include:

• Instead of trying to turn Israel into your whipping boy, maybe the "cronies" at the State Department should address the points that Yaalon raised. It seems to me that they are trying to kill the messenger precisely because his points were so close to home. 
• Israel is a democracy where free speech is protected. The US also used to value freedom of expression, but clearly those days are gone.
• Yaalon was freely elected by the voting public and is a war hero who is eminently suited to this position. Why would the US think that they could dictate who is in the Israeli cabinet? Can you imagine any country making such demands?
• Since the NSA is reading this, I expect that I am now on some Orwellian watch list.
• Actually one of the things that I love the most about Israel is that being "dugri" (i.e. direct/blunt) and free-wheeling, heated debates, are a valued form of discourse. It is so refreshing to be in a place where political correctness has not yet infiltrated people’s vocabulary and minds to the point that they can't produce a sentence without qualifying it ten times. I honestly can't tell you how much I missed this all the years that I was living in the US! 

Lastly, I find this whole affair slightly odd when you consider how much harm this administration has done to US-Israel relations. Let’s take a moment to recap some highlights:

The administration began its first term pledging the need to put some "daylight" in the relations between Israel and the US. (This is apparently the politically correct way of saying “Distance yourself while kissing up to the Arab States").

Though this administration has repeatedly said to Israelis that "among friends there are bound to be disagreements," it is clear that this is meant to only work one way.

This administration has, on more than one occasion deliberately ambushed Netanyahu on core issues surrounding the peace process - both in the press and at press conferences.

Perhaps most egregious of all, Obama had the temerity to compare Palestinians to African Americans in the antebellum South and the Secretary of State who recently said that Israel's core, simple demand, that it be recognized as the state of the Jewish people was not particularly important.

So these are the people who want an apology because Yaalon said what everyone around the world is thinking? I think it is long past due for the Obama administration to offer an apology to Israel.

Instead, as Shakespeare famously said in Hamlet, they "doth protest too much, methinks.”

Crimea is Bigger than Israel

The BBC is reporting that while in the US, Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk stated that:

"A country which willingly gave up its nuclear arsenal... and received guarantees from the world's leading countries, finds itself unprotected, one-on-one with a country which is armed to its teeth. If you do not uphold these guarantees… then explain how you will convince Iran and North Korea to give up their nuclear status."

I think that it is a good question and certainly something that Israelis are watching carefully.  The Obama administration has removed sanctions from Iran while asking Israel to trust the US amid promises that it will all work out in the end.  At the same time the administration is admonishing Israel not to take any action to ensure our security because the US has our back.

With the Palestinians, Israelis are being asked to return to the ceasefire lines (not borders) of 1967 in which the country will be less than 10 miles wide at its narrowest point.  The US is offering security "guarantees" to entice Israel to commit national suicide by giving up the Jordan Valley.  Based on the Budapest Memorandum and guarantees that were given to the Ukraine in 1994, we will be closely watching how the US and EU react following the upcoming referendum this Sunday in the Crimea.

Even with all of the captured territories, Israel is still smaller than Crimea.  Maybe, instead of pressuring Israel and making 10 trips to Jerusalem in the past year, Kerry should have spent some time in Kiev and Moscow?

Judenrein Palestine Colony Hotel

On Wednesday I spent most of the day in East Jerusalem checking out hotels and restaurants in and around Salah e-din (Saladin) street and searching for a shop that sells Al-Wazah (Swan Brand), my favorite tea.  It has been over 20 years since I was last there and it was nice to see all the changes and to remember the places that I visited so long ago.

For the most part, the area has not really changed or developed a great deal.  Sure, the shops have received a facelift, the restaurants offered pizza and hamburgers as much as they did shawarma and falafel, and there was even a hip-looking youth center just off the main drag.  Though I visited at least ten shops and found some people who favorably remembered drinking Al Wazah, unfortunately I had no luck finding anyone who stocked the tea.  In the end I had to settle on A Rabea, a bland but inoffensive Saudi blend that goes well with nana (spearmint).  Considering that Al Wazah was originally marketed primarily in the West Bank, it was a bit of a disappointment to end up empty handed.

Most of the day I walked around and checked out the hotels in the area to see if any of them might be worth a stay.  I saw every type of accommodation from the Metropole, a hotel that would not feel out of place in India, to the swank St. George Hotel with its beautiful rooftop view of the Old City. Each hotel had something distinctive about it, but I admit that what stuck in my mind was the complete lack of security at the entrance to these hotels.  Whereas Israeli hotels are always high security zones with guards and metal detectors, all of the hotels I visited were freely accessible to anyone off the street. Clear proof, I would say, that only one side in this conflict lives in perpetual fear of losing life and limb.

The last hotel I visited was the American Colony Hotel, of the exclusive "Landmark Hotels of the World" chain.  A remnant of the 19th century evangelical American mission to the Holy Land, the hotel exuded old-world comfort and oriental charm.  Long the leading destination for diplomats, journalists, and UN officials arriving because of the perennial Arab-Israeli conflict, it is strategically located in posh part of Wadi Joz.  Until 2001, it was situated just around the corner from Orient House, which served as the de facto Palestinian seat of government in the 1980s and 1990s.

Perhaps precisely because Orient House was shuttered in 2001 (at the height of the Second Intifada), the American Colony Hotel today serves as an unofficial meeting place to court members of the Palestinian National Authority. Considered one of, if not the most beautiful hotel in Israel, it is beautifully apportioned, with nods to local artisanship.  The lobby is comfortable with inlaid coffee tables decorated with seashells and olive wood over worn marble and limestone tiled floors covered with large Persian carpets in the locally popular hues of red and black. The inner courtyard is lush and contains a diverse collection of succulents that keep the place green all year round. Indeed, everything from the exterior to the deluxe "Pasha" rooms exudes a tasteful, yet faux Orientalism that transports you to the halcyon age of benevolent Empire.

Yet, a closer inspection quickly reveals that the hotel is squarely situated in the present day and age and even doubles as the unofficial Palestinian Propaganda Center for the jet-set and well connected on Facebook crowd.  Already in the lobby, one is greeted with free maps of "Palestine" that focus on Jerusalem and just happen to cover what would otherwise be known as Israel (including the slightly nefarious sounding "Israeli built-up areas").  Next to these maps is a glossy weekly called, "This Week in Palestine" that includes articles such as, "Jerusalem 1948-1967: La Dolce Vita" (i.e. before the Jews ruined the neighborhood and the "fall of Palestine") and "Omar: An Authentic Palestinian Movie" (funded by Europeans and filmed entirely in the Israeli "built-up area" of Nazareth").  Of all the articles, perhaps my favorite were, "Palestinian Hip-Hop" and, "This is Palestine: Building a Positive National Brand through Art and Design."

Unfortunately, a quick visit to the hotel's bookstore reveals that a positive approach does not always characterize the branding efforts of Palestine's supporters.  Displayed prominently on the shelves are the pseudo-histories and diatribes of anti-Zionists such as Shlomo Sand (The Invention of the Jewish People) and Ilan Pappe (The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine) and Ari Shavit's recent first-person, best-selling critique of Israeli statehood (My Promised Land).  Next to these lies Bradt's Guidebook to Palestine, the only existing guidebook to a non-existent place, which (not surprisingly) smudges the margins and extends Palestinian sovereignty to the, "culturally Palestinian (Israeli Arab) enclaves found within Israel."

So, what's the big deal?  Well, I think that, by wholeheartedly embracing the Palestinian perspective and publicly identifying itself as representative of "Palestine," the American Colony Hotel is presenting its guests with a false image of what Palestinian independence might look like "if only given a chance." However, at the end of the day, there is a reason that the hotel runs with such Swiss efficiency and that is because it is actually owned a run by a Swiss company.  While guests of the hotel are presented glossy and photoshopped images of Palestine, back in the real world, there is no doubt that hip hop, "positive" art, and the "Dolce Vita" will all go the way of Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Bahrain as the radicals groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad usher in Taliban rule and destroy their domestic opponents with their well-honed terror tactics.

In fact, the only thing about the American Colony Hotel that is true to what a future independent Palestine might look like is that it is functionally Judenrein, with almost no Jewish guests and only one Jewish staff member.

Mainstreaming Hate in France

The New York Times has a piece out today questioning whether France should be setting limits on Dieudonne Mbala Mbala's hate speech.  Mbala ia an ant-Semitic "comic" who has made a name for himself as a Holocaust denier and inventor of the "quenelle" (an inverted Nazi salute). The article seems to imply that denying him "free speech" is a slippery slope that could infringe upon the civil liberties of all French people if allowed to get out of hand.

While I agree that the ideal is a world where free speech is protected, part of me wonders what the reaction would be if a Jewish man or a white person began to perform anti-Muslim shows in France? Not only would the authorities shut them down immediately, they would almost immediately be murdered.  Even in the US, with its "tradition of free speech," I do not recall that the New York Times editorialized in favor of the minister who wanted to burn Korans down in Florida or the guy who made the movie that this administration blamed for the Benghazi debacle.

In Europe, Theo Van Gogh was assasinated and Ayaan Hirsi Ali - a sitting member of parliament - was forced into exile. In Denmark, the cartoonists who drew a picture of Mohammed are still living under constant threat and the NYT feels that this is a good time to remind everyone that MUSLIMS in France could face discrimination if cretins like Mbala are not effectively dealt with.

This story fosters a completely false analogy and then effaces the identity of those Muslims and far-Leftist third-worlders (trois-mondistes) who are fanning the flames.  The former have become the "Jews" of the post-9-11 world - i.e. the "oppresed" who need to be sympathized with, and the latter are the Times's  core audience.

The last paragraph offers this chestnut, "Dieudonné's got this constituency out in the banlieues and he speaks to them in code, he doesn’t have to say, ‘The Holocaust never happened." Pray tell, who is it that lives in the banlieues?  Might it be primarily North African MUSLIMS? If the NYT knows, it certainly isn't saying so. Perhaps they are the ones speaking in code?

By fostering this false analogy and bending over backwards to try and demonstrate that Muslims also have it bad and are being "persecuted," they are essentially equating the victimizers with the victims.

Meanwhile, in the streets of Paris, Jews are being brutalized on a daily basis and neither the NYT or any other major paper cares to cover these outrages. See HERE and HERE for just two recent examples. 

The Fallout Factor

As the Crimean situation lurches slowly forward, it is clear that the US and Europe have very little in the way of traction with Russia. There have been some "targeted" sanctions (read: slaps on the wrist) and cancelled participation in the upcoming G-8 meeting in Sochi (read: declining a dinner invitation). Though there is a lot of talk of the need to prevent nations from redrawing borders in the 21st century, Russia is already holding out its gas shipments and other sanctions as retaliation for and European or American moves. I sincerely doubt that there is the stomach in Europe for the fallout that this may entail.  Europeans are happy to have their indolent lifestyle subsidized by their governments and their defense outsourced to the United States. They will not risk economic consequences over Crimea.

But respond they must in some way. Since a response in Europe would lead to a counter response, I predict that we will witness Cold War style strategic maneuvering throughout various regional theaters around the world.  In fact, while the US and EU have been sleeping on the job, pontificating about democracy, and obsessing about the largely non-existing Arab-Israeli conflict, Russia has been reasserting itself throughout the Middle East. One can cite many examples, but two suffice - Egypt and Syria.

In Egypt, the Obama administration messed up royally. Early in his first term, Obama went to Egypt and chose to do a "reset" with the Arab world by giving a pro-Arab and anti-Israeli speech that embraced the Arab narrative with the regard to the conflict. Shortly after leaving Cairo his administration discontinued the Democracy promotion programs that the Bush administration had put into place when Condoleeza Rice spoke in Cairo. This rightly signaled to Mubarak that America would no longer seek to intervene  in Egyptian affairs.

Yet, when the Tahrir Square demonstrations began, the administration quickly dumped Mubarak and the Egyptian military in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood and their fanatical minions. Then in the case of Morsi, the Obama administration fought to restore him to power even though it was clear to almost everyone that being in power had not had a moderating influence on the Brotherhood and that through overreach he had lost the support of the masses. Even worse, the Obama administration chose to label the revolution a coup and cut off some military aid. Not surprisingly, the Russians were there to fill the gap and have just offered Egypt a $2 Bln military aid package with no strings attached. For the historically challenged out there, this brings Egypt back into the Russian fold after over 35 years in the American Camp.

In the case of Syria, Russia has been running interference for Assad since the civil war there started. Putin has not only been supplying the regime with weapons, but most importantly, providing Assad breathing space by vetoing any resolutions in the Security Council. Over the past summer, Putin made the US and France look like his flunkies by outmaneuvering them over the large-scale use of chemical weapons on his civilian population.  For now the regime is "cooperating" with the destruction of the chemical weapons (that they claimed did not exist), though they are nowhere near to meeting the agreed upon targets.

Why is this important? If the EU and the US want to get back at Russia, the obvious choice is to ramp up their involvement in Egypt and Syria. In the case of Egypt, this means a rapprochement and even support for Sisi, in the case of Syria it means more active involvement. While pressure on Russia may lead tit for tat exchanges, greater American support for the rebels in Syria and even a NATO no-fly zone over Syria would do a lot to undermine and blunt Russian interests in the region. Considering all the effort that was put into securing Iraq, I hope the administration can finally use it as a base to arm and train the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Of course, the problem is that this will undoubtedly add to the instability of the region and risks pulling Iran into direct confrontation with the West.  Certainly, Iran has even less incentive to slow its headlong race to obtain nuclear weapons.  It also adds to the EU and America's desire to "solve" the Palestinian question in a way that appeases the Arab world.  All of these things will only add to Israel's strategic concerns and exacerbate regional instability.

Schooled by Putin

Perhaps I am a terrible person for admitting this (and I definitely hope that bloodshed in Ukraine will be averted), but I cannot help but enjoy watching Obama and Kerry getting schooled in Realpolitik by Putin.

"Now Ukraine has emerged as a test of Obama’s argument that, far from weakening American power, he has enhanced it through smarter diplomacy, stronger alliances and a realism untainted by the ideology that guided his predecessor.

It will be a hard argument for him to make, analysts say." (For entire article)

Now that's the understatement of the day! 

By removing American force from the table and shrinking the military to pre-WW II levels, he has only destabilized the post-Soviet world order.  Frankly speaking, Obama has survived this long largely by coasting and lowered expectations.  Kerry has been wrong on pretty much every policy issue he has ever supported.  Perhaps instead of ten unnecessary trips to Israel, he should not have pawned Ukraine off to Biden and paid a visit to Kiev?

Ask and Ye Shall Receive

"Russia will not leave this request without attention." (HERE)

And so it begins.  I want to say that I was wrong about Yanukovych.  I thought he would not give up so easily the second time around and that he would take courage from Russia's support of Assad in Syria.

I was wrong also in thinking that the action would start in the East of Ukraine where there is a clear Russian majority.  In retrospect, it makes a lot of sense that this will begin in Crimea.  If Russia is going to be a world power again, it needs to be able to project power and that means a warm water fleet (cf. Tartus).  Besides, annexing Eastern Ukraine can wait until later.

I was right that this would all begin once the Olympics were over and that Russia would be more than willing to use force if necessary.  However, instead of Hungary in 1956, it looks like it will play out more like Abkhazia in 2008.  In any case, the fact remains that the euphoria in Kiev is premature. This does not look like it will resolve itself anytime soon.

Once again, the "realists" in foreign affairs were proven right as has Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations." As for Fukuyama and the "idealist" crowd, they have once again been proven to be delusional.  Meanwhile, back on the farm, the US continues its downward spiral and slashes the defence budget to pre-WWII levels.  Let's just wait and see how that works out for the world.