Update from Day 5 of the Ground War (Day 15 since the start of Operation Protective Edge)

There have been a great many developments over the past two days and many of them are perhaps unclear in their implications to those who are unfamiliar with the subtleties of the region.  I’ll try my best to decode some of these items for you.

Johnny’s back! After visiting Israel every other week for months, John Kerry returned today after snubbing us for the past three months.  I don’t blame him, he has been busy dealing with the world’s crises that she should have been dealing with while he was doing his best to earn himself a peace prize and a leg up in the 2016 Presidential Elections.  As it turns out, while he was he was running back and forth between Israel and the Palestinians – which was the quietest corner in the entire region at the time – Russia was busy planning the invasion and annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, ISIS was planning its capture of half of Iraq and Syria, Iran was inching ever closer to having a nuclear bomb, and Libya slid into complete civil war.

Back in April, in this blog, I facetiously noted that because of Kerry's peace push that the region's forecast was “Cloudy with a Chance Missiles.”  I wrote this because after every round of “negotiations” in the “peace process” there is a terror wave, intifada, or missile war. You don’t have to be a genius to understand why this is. It is because you build up false expectations and then when they do not materialize, you strengthen the hand of the radicals in society.  Note also that, in over twenty years of negotiations, Palestinians have not budged one inch in their demands. Yet have been rewarded with international assistance and buttressed by moral support from the Left. From their perspective, they need only hold out a bit longer and the world will impose a solution on Israel – one which will come close to their maximalist demands.  To some degree they are absolutely right.  For example, this time around the US pressured Israel to release of Palestinian prisoners with blood on their hands and the Palestinians gave absolutely nothing in return.  In other words, “Something for nothing and your pricks for free…”

In short, what the US, the Europeans and others do not understand is that neither side is interested in resolving the conflict right now.  Israel sees too many regional threats on the horizon (e.g. Syria, Iran, ISIS) to give up strategic territory and control of the border crossings and the Palestinians see no reason to compromise when Europe and the US are doing the hard bargaining for them. There is much more to it than this, but there it is a nutshell.  Another way to put this is that the US has been the arsonist of the Middle East.  Feckless and flat-footed on almost every issue, both this and the previous administration have managed to bring the region to the brink of total disaster.

So now Kerry shows up uninvited after instigating the whole slide into chaos and wants a ceasefire.  Since the State Department has no leverage over Hamas, the brainiacs in the State Department have decided to wage economic warfare on Israel.  Though nothing has changed in the past few days EXCEPT that there are now FEWER missile attacks, the State Department has chosen this moment to release a warning against all “non-essential” travel to Israel.  Then today, shortly after Kerry’s arrive, the FAA sends out a State Department approved notice to airlines that they should not fly to Israel.  As a result, except for El Al, there are no flights coming in and out of Ben Gurion airport as of tomorrow.  Obviously, this will have serious ripple effects on the Israeli economy. 

Some Thoughts on the Above: Considering that all the major Western papers have shrugged off Israeli concerns regarding rocket attacks on our civilian population, it is at least reassuring to see that even the US and Europe now admit (through these travel warnings) that there exists a legitimate danger to life and limb. Also, since the airport is now closed, it is hard to imagine any country in the world that would not be justified in doing anything and everything in its power to keep open its only commercial airport.

It is not hyperbole to say that the region is undergoing its greatest upheaval since at least World War I and more rightly since the Mongol invasions of the 13^th century.  You cannot see what is going on in Gaza as separate from what is happening in the region.  The spread and strengthening of ISIS, is both an indictment of the Obama administration’s policies in Iraq and Syria and a palpable threat to the stability of the entire region.  Due to the Syrian Civil War, 2 million Sunnis have become refugees in Lebanon, upsetting the nation’s delicate ethnic balance.  Most importantly it has erased the Shiite majority that first developed in the 1980’s.  Similarly, in Jordan, one million refugees have made Palestinians a minority there for the first time.  If these destitute refugees join the cause of ISIS, then you could see the countries around Israel tumble like the proverbial dominos.  Israel is aware of this real threat and for that reason (among others) feels the need to defang Hamas now or face being attacked in the rear should a regional war break out (and it will). Of course, Hamas has been weakened by the downfall of Morsi and has lost much of its regional support by its backing (on and off) of Iran and financial support from Qatar (Saudi Arabia’s arch enemy).  Though the PLO is in a partnership with Hamas, no one there is saddened by it getting punched in the face and Egypt has already declared the organization a terrorist outfit.  The downside in all of this is that Hamas has nothing to lose and hopes to gain as much sympathy as possible in its “martyrdom.”

There is a whole chapter that can and should be written about how these changes are affecting and changing the political calculus of the region's minorities (e.g. Christians, Druze, Alawites, Kurds, Shiites, and Jews). Maybe we’ll get to this next time.

In Other News: 

• Apparently an Israeli soldier’s body was kidnapped from the battle in the Shajaiya the other day.  Hamas announced that Israel will have to “pay” just to see a picture of his body.

• Several foreign correspondents tweeted that they saw Hamas cross-dressers in women’s clothing (i.e. burqa) and rifle.  One of these “fighters” tried to approach an army unit and was shot dead before they could detonate their suicide vest.

• Among the ten infiltrators killed or captured yesterday as they were headed to attack a Jewish community, one was injured and is now being treated in an Israeli hospital.  He is 16 years old.  A thirteen year old child wearing a suicide vest was also caught yesterday by soldiers in Shujaiya. Next time the news reports that minors were killed by Israeli airstrikes, ask yourself if perhaps they might have also been enemy combatants.

• A tunnel that led to a dining hall in an Israeli kibbutz and another one that led to a nursery school were uncovered.  It’s not like it was any secret that these tunnels existed – Hamas repeatedly warned that it would “surprise” the enemy once the time would come.  But no one thought that there were so many and so sophisticated. These were built at great cost and over a long period of time, hooked up with electricity, supplied with food and weapons, and clearly designed to harm Israel’s civilian population.  These were not headed to any of the military bases in the region.

• One of the ten demands that Hamas has made in order for it to agree to a ceasefire is that it be given unfettered access to cement.  Now we know why. 

• If even a fraction of the cement used to build these tunnels was used by the Hamas government to build bomb shelters, I wonder how many people’s lives could have been saved.  

Mainstreaming Holocaust Denial

Deborah Lipstadt, who was famously sued by Holocaust denier David Irving for libel (and won), weighs in on the recent Holocaust denial assignment in the Rialto school district. It is a strong piece and well worth reading. I agree with her that, in many ways, the fact that the school officials seem clueless comes across as being somehow worse than malice. 

Though I personally wonder how clueless these officials really were, I find it fascinating and frightening that they are still presiding over the school district. Fascinating as someone who tries to see the world thtough the prism of a social scientist and frightening as a Jew who is worried about the future.

After all, this is not the only scandal swirling around these days. Recently, Mozilla CEO Eich was caught making a private donation to an organization that opposes gay marriage and was forced to resign from his post. Just a few weeks ago, David Sterling said some really stupid and offensive things in a private conversation and was almost immediately banned from the NBA for life. Just today, the Beverly Hills council convened to decide on whether to divest from a hotel owned by the Sultan of Brunei because Sharia Law was imposed in his home country and homosexuality has become outlawed.

Not that far from Beverly Hills, an entire school district thought it was a good idea to ask 2,000 8th graders to discuss whether Anne Frank's diary was a forgery and whether the Holocaust actually happened or was just a sinister ploy by the Jews to gain sympathy and money. When challenged about this assignment, the interim school district superintendant Mohammad Z. Islam and district spokeswoman Syeda Jafri defended the assignment for developing "critical thinking skills," before they ultimately backed down!

Ask yourselves what would have happened if the assignment were to: "Discuss whether slavery ever existed in America or whether it is just a ploy by African Americans to achieve political ends." or to "Discuss whether Native Americans suffered a genocide..." or even to "Discuss whether homosexuals should be kept away from small children" etc.

Where is the outrage? The fact that basically nothing has happened and the media response has pretty much been along the lines of "Oh the things people say!" tells me a lot about where we are today.

Meanwhile, the Rialto school district met in closed session today. While there were, "no public action items on the agenda" the board discussed “anticipated litigation” and a “threat to public services or facilities”. Clearly, they have internalized the great wrong that was done here and have their (CYA) priorities straight. Indeed, based on this session, one might even say that they are the "victims" here.

Anti-Zionism is Anti-Semitism

Donald Sterling's recent comments have rightly led to opprobrium and a discussion on the state of racism in American today.  Yet, I wonder what it says about America that there has been almost no discussion of the roots of modern-day anti-Semitism following the murder of three innocent people in Kansas City? Jeff Jacoby identifies the source:

"Where anti-Semitism is gaining market share today is not among those who yell “Heil Hitler” or demonize Jews as Christ-killers. The oldest and most protean of hatreds has assumed a new form for a new age: hostility to Zionism and Israel. The classic anti-Semitic motifs — Jews are aliens, Jews are murderous, Jews are rapacious, Jews are disloyal, Jews manipulate governments — have been repurposed for a post-Holocaust generation that speaks with a post-Holocaust vocabulary."

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2014/04/26/amid-holocaust-remembrance-anti-semitism-adapts-and-thrives/D0kkT4Wih5OAiYUFSgHLYM/story.html

J'accuse!

There have been many waves of antisemitism throughout history.  There has been religious antisemitism promoted by the church or the mosque (e.g. the Inquisition). There has been political and nationalist antisemitism based on the xenophobia of nation-states.  There has been racial antisemitism based on social Darwinism and eugenics. And, there has been the antisemitism of the underclass and lumpen proletariat.

What is interesting about today's antisemitism is that it is being spearheaded by "intellectuals."  Whether it is the BDS campaigns against Israel, the outlawing of kosher meat, or the banning of circumcision, present-day antisemitism cannot be separated from trends in academia.

 
Rooted in the postmodernist fallacy that there is no objective truth, postcolianialist guilt, grievance narratives, and (ironically) a liberal universalist worldview with strict and unassailable notions of what is right and wrong, modern-day antisemitism poisons the youth from the top down. Combine this with the current economic malaise, anti-capitalism, anti-nationalism, and isolationism and it is easy to see why this virus easily replicates itself.

To my ex-colleagues in academia: There is nothing courageous about attacking Israel and the Jews.  It is political hipsterism devoid of morality and substance. History will judge your support for the most oppressive and obscurantist forces against a thriving liberal democracy that grants equal rights under the law for all its citizens.

By leveling your invectives solely against Israel and the Jews, you have allied yourselves with the mob. Perhaps this makes you feel a little less powerless, but you are not only playing a dangerous game with other people's lives but also toying with an all consuming fire. 

Cloudy with a Chance of Missiles

John Kerry, who literally lives in cloud cuckoo land, has urged a "reality check" from Israelis and Palestinians.  This come from the person who has been obsessed with the only sliver of land in the Middle East that is not currently on fire as the rest of the region burns.  I am sure he does not even realize that now, like every time there has been a so-called "peace process," we will have to deal with the fallout and frustration of failed expectations.

Personally, I am really looking forward to the day when John Kerry is just a historical footnote.

L'Affaire Yaalon

Recently, the Israeli Defense Minister got himself into hot water for saying what everyone else has been thinking.  Referring to the Crimean crisis, he stated that:

“If you sit and wait at home, the terrorism will come again. Even if you hunker down, it will come. This is a war of civilizations. If your image is feebleness, it doesn’t pay in the world. Nobody will replace the United States as global policeman. I hope the United States comes to its senses. If it doesn’t, it will challenge the world order, and the United States is the one that will suffer.”

This made the State Department go ballistic, caused Kerry to call Bibi, and apparently involved a request from the American side that Yaalon resign from his post!

My thoughts on this whole affair include:

• Instead of trying to turn Israel into your whipping boy, maybe the "cronies" at the State Department should address the points that Yaalon raised. It seems to me that they are trying to kill the messenger precisely because his points were so close to home. 
• Israel is a democracy where free speech is protected. The US also used to value freedom of expression, but clearly those days are gone.
• Yaalon was freely elected by the voting public and is a war hero who is eminently suited to this position. Why would the US think that they could dictate who is in the Israeli cabinet? Can you imagine any country making such demands?
• Since the NSA is reading this, I expect that I am now on some Orwellian watch list.
• Actually one of the things that I love the most about Israel is that being "dugri" (i.e. direct/blunt) and free-wheeling, heated debates, are a valued form of discourse. It is so refreshing to be in a place where political correctness has not yet infiltrated people’s vocabulary and minds to the point that they can't produce a sentence without qualifying it ten times. I honestly can't tell you how much I missed this all the years that I was living in the US! 

Lastly, I find this whole affair slightly odd when you consider how much harm this administration has done to US-Israel relations. Let’s take a moment to recap some highlights:

The administration began its first term pledging the need to put some "daylight" in the relations between Israel and the US. (This is apparently the politically correct way of saying “Distance yourself while kissing up to the Arab States").

Though this administration has repeatedly said to Israelis that "among friends there are bound to be disagreements," it is clear that this is meant to only work one way.

This administration has, on more than one occasion deliberately ambushed Netanyahu on core issues surrounding the peace process - both in the press and at press conferences.

Perhaps most egregious of all, Obama had the temerity to compare Palestinians to African Americans in the antebellum South and the Secretary of State who recently said that Israel's core, simple demand, that it be recognized as the state of the Jewish people was not particularly important.

So these are the people who want an apology because Yaalon said what everyone around the world is thinking? I think it is long past due for the Obama administration to offer an apology to Israel.

Instead, as Shakespeare famously said in Hamlet, they "doth protest too much, methinks.”

Crimea is Bigger than Israel

The BBC is reporting that while in the US, Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk stated that:

"A country which willingly gave up its nuclear arsenal... and received guarantees from the world's leading countries, finds itself unprotected, one-on-one with a country which is armed to its teeth. If you do not uphold these guarantees… then explain how you will convince Iran and North Korea to give up their nuclear status."

I think that it is a good question and certainly something that Israelis are watching carefully.  The Obama administration has removed sanctions from Iran while asking Israel to trust the US amid promises that it will all work out in the end.  At the same time the administration is admonishing Israel not to take any action to ensure our security because the US has our back.

With the Palestinians, Israelis are being asked to return to the ceasefire lines (not borders) of 1967 in which the country will be less than 10 miles wide at its narrowest point.  The US is offering security "guarantees" to entice Israel to commit national suicide by giving up the Jordan Valley.  Based on the Budapest Memorandum and guarantees that were given to the Ukraine in 1994, we will be closely watching how the US and EU react following the upcoming referendum this Sunday in the Crimea.

Even with all of the captured territories, Israel is still smaller than Crimea.  Maybe, instead of pressuring Israel and making 10 trips to Jerusalem in the past year, Kerry should have spent some time in Kiev and Moscow?

Judenrein Palestine Colony Hotel

On Wednesday I spent most of the day in East Jerusalem checking out hotels and restaurants in and around Salah e-din (Saladin) street and searching for a shop that sells Al-Wazah (Swan Brand), my favorite tea.  It has been over 20 years since I was last there and it was nice to see all the changes and to remember the places that I visited so long ago.

For the most part, the area has not really changed or developed a great deal.  Sure, the shops have received a facelift, the restaurants offered pizza and hamburgers as much as they did shawarma and falafel, and there was even a hip-looking youth center just off the main drag.  Though I visited at least ten shops and found some people who favorably remembered drinking Al Wazah, unfortunately I had no luck finding anyone who stocked the tea.  In the end I had to settle on A Rabea, a bland but inoffensive Saudi blend that goes well with nana (spearmint).  Considering that Al Wazah was originally marketed primarily in the West Bank, it was a bit of a disappointment to end up empty handed.

Most of the day I walked around and checked out the hotels in the area to see if any of them might be worth a stay.  I saw every type of accommodation from the Metropole, a hotel that would not feel out of place in India, to the swank St. George Hotel with its beautiful rooftop view of the Old City. Each hotel had something distinctive about it, but I admit that what stuck in my mind was the complete lack of security at the entrance to these hotels.  Whereas Israeli hotels are always high security zones with guards and metal detectors, all of the hotels I visited were freely accessible to anyone off the street. Clear proof, I would say, that only one side in this conflict lives in perpetual fear of losing life and limb.

The last hotel I visited was the American Colony Hotel, of the exclusive "Landmark Hotels of the World" chain.  A remnant of the 19th century evangelical American mission to the Holy Land, the hotel exuded old-world comfort and oriental charm.  Long the leading destination for diplomats, journalists, and UN officials arriving because of the perennial Arab-Israeli conflict, it is strategically located in posh part of Wadi Joz.  Until 2001, it was situated just around the corner from Orient House, which served as the de facto Palestinian seat of government in the 1980s and 1990s.

Perhaps precisely because Orient House was shuttered in 2001 (at the height of the Second Intifada), the American Colony Hotel today serves as an unofficial meeting place to court members of the Palestinian National Authority. Considered one of, if not the most beautiful hotel in Israel, it is beautifully apportioned, with nods to local artisanship.  The lobby is comfortable with inlaid coffee tables decorated with seashells and olive wood over worn marble and limestone tiled floors covered with large Persian carpets in the locally popular hues of red and black. The inner courtyard is lush and contains a diverse collection of succulents that keep the place green all year round. Indeed, everything from the exterior to the deluxe "Pasha" rooms exudes a tasteful, yet faux Orientalism that transports you to the halcyon age of benevolent Empire.

Yet, a closer inspection quickly reveals that the hotel is squarely situated in the present day and age and even doubles as the unofficial Palestinian Propaganda Center for the jet-set and well connected on Facebook crowd.  Already in the lobby, one is greeted with free maps of "Palestine" that focus on Jerusalem and just happen to cover what would otherwise be known as Israel (including the slightly nefarious sounding "Israeli built-up areas").  Next to these maps is a glossy weekly called, "This Week in Palestine" that includes articles such as, "Jerusalem 1948-1967: La Dolce Vita" (i.e. before the Jews ruined the neighborhood and the "fall of Palestine") and "Omar: An Authentic Palestinian Movie" (funded by Europeans and filmed entirely in the Israeli "built-up area" of Nazareth").  Of all the articles, perhaps my favorite were, "Palestinian Hip-Hop" and, "This is Palestine: Building a Positive National Brand through Art and Design."

Unfortunately, a quick visit to the hotel's bookstore reveals that a positive approach does not always characterize the branding efforts of Palestine's supporters.  Displayed prominently on the shelves are the pseudo-histories and diatribes of anti-Zionists such as Shlomo Sand (The Invention of the Jewish People) and Ilan Pappe (The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine) and Ari Shavit's recent first-person, best-selling critique of Israeli statehood (My Promised Land).  Next to these lies Bradt's Guidebook to Palestine, the only existing guidebook to a non-existent place, which (not surprisingly) smudges the margins and extends Palestinian sovereignty to the, "culturally Palestinian (Israeli Arab) enclaves found within Israel."

So, what's the big deal?  Well, I think that, by wholeheartedly embracing the Palestinian perspective and publicly identifying itself as representative of "Palestine," the American Colony Hotel is presenting its guests with a false image of what Palestinian independence might look like "if only given a chance." However, at the end of the day, there is a reason that the hotel runs with such Swiss efficiency and that is because it is actually owned a run by a Swiss company.  While guests of the hotel are presented glossy and photoshopped images of Palestine, back in the real world, there is no doubt that hip hop, "positive" art, and the "Dolce Vita" will all go the way of Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Bahrain as the radicals groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad usher in Taliban rule and destroy their domestic opponents with their well-honed terror tactics.

In fact, the only thing about the American Colony Hotel that is true to what a future independent Palestine might look like is that it is functionally Judenrein, with almost no Jewish guests and only one Jewish staff member.

Mainstreaming Hate in France

The New York Times has a piece out today questioning whether France should be setting limits on Dieudonne Mbala Mbala's hate speech.  Mbala ia an ant-Semitic "comic" who has made a name for himself as a Holocaust denier and inventor of the "quenelle" (an inverted Nazi salute). The article seems to imply that denying him "free speech" is a slippery slope that could infringe upon the civil liberties of all French people if allowed to get out of hand.

While I agree that the ideal is a world where free speech is protected, part of me wonders what the reaction would be if a Jewish man or a white person began to perform anti-Muslim shows in France? Not only would the authorities shut them down immediately, they would almost immediately be murdered.  Even in the US, with its "tradition of free speech," I do not recall that the New York Times editorialized in favor of the minister who wanted to burn Korans down in Florida or the guy who made the movie that this administration blamed for the Benghazi debacle.

In Europe, Theo Van Gogh was assasinated and Ayaan Hirsi Ali - a sitting member of parliament - was forced into exile. In Denmark, the cartoonists who drew a picture of Mohammed are still living under constant threat and the NYT feels that this is a good time to remind everyone that MUSLIMS in France could face discrimination if cretins like Mbala are not effectively dealt with.

This story fosters a completely false analogy and then effaces the identity of those Muslims and far-Leftist third-worlders (trois-mondistes) who are fanning the flames.  The former have become the "Jews" of the post-9-11 world - i.e. the "oppresed" who need to be sympathized with, and the latter are the Times's  core audience.

The last paragraph offers this chestnut, "Dieudonné's got this constituency out in the banlieues and he speaks to them in code, he doesn’t have to say, ‘The Holocaust never happened." Pray tell, who is it that lives in the banlieues?  Might it be primarily North African MUSLIMS? If the NYT knows, it certainly isn't saying so. Perhaps they are the ones speaking in code?

By fostering this false analogy and bending over backwards to try and demonstrate that Muslims also have it bad and are being "persecuted," they are essentially equating the victimizers with the victims.

Meanwhile, in the streets of Paris, Jews are being brutalized on a daily basis and neither the NYT or any other major paper cares to cover these outrages. See HERE and HERE for just two recent examples. 

The Fallout Factor

As the Crimean situation lurches slowly forward, it is clear that the US and Europe have very little in the way of traction with Russia. There have been some "targeted" sanctions (read: slaps on the wrist) and cancelled participation in the upcoming G-8 meeting in Sochi (read: declining a dinner invitation). Though there is a lot of talk of the need to prevent nations from redrawing borders in the 21st century, Russia is already holding out its gas shipments and other sanctions as retaliation for and European or American moves. I sincerely doubt that there is the stomach in Europe for the fallout that this may entail.  Europeans are happy to have their indolent lifestyle subsidized by their governments and their defense outsourced to the United States. They will not risk economic consequences over Crimea.

But respond they must in some way. Since a response in Europe would lead to a counter response, I predict that we will witness Cold War style strategic maneuvering throughout various regional theaters around the world.  In fact, while the US and EU have been sleeping on the job, pontificating about democracy, and obsessing about the largely non-existing Arab-Israeli conflict, Russia has been reasserting itself throughout the Middle East. One can cite many examples, but two suffice - Egypt and Syria.

In Egypt, the Obama administration messed up royally. Early in his first term, Obama went to Egypt and chose to do a "reset" with the Arab world by giving a pro-Arab and anti-Israeli speech that embraced the Arab narrative with the regard to the conflict. Shortly after leaving Cairo his administration discontinued the Democracy promotion programs that the Bush administration had put into place when Condoleeza Rice spoke in Cairo. This rightly signaled to Mubarak that America would no longer seek to intervene  in Egyptian affairs.

Yet, when the Tahrir Square demonstrations began, the administration quickly dumped Mubarak and the Egyptian military in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood and their fanatical minions. Then in the case of Morsi, the Obama administration fought to restore him to power even though it was clear to almost everyone that being in power had not had a moderating influence on the Brotherhood and that through overreach he had lost the support of the masses. Even worse, the Obama administration chose to label the revolution a coup and cut off some military aid. Not surprisingly, the Russians were there to fill the gap and have just offered Egypt a $2 Bln military aid package with no strings attached. For the historically challenged out there, this brings Egypt back into the Russian fold after over 35 years in the American Camp.

In the case of Syria, Russia has been running interference for Assad since the civil war there started. Putin has not only been supplying the regime with weapons, but most importantly, providing Assad breathing space by vetoing any resolutions in the Security Council. Over the past summer, Putin made the US and France look like his flunkies by outmaneuvering them over the large-scale use of chemical weapons on his civilian population.  For now the regime is "cooperating" with the destruction of the chemical weapons (that they claimed did not exist), though they are nowhere near to meeting the agreed upon targets.

Why is this important? If the EU and the US want to get back at Russia, the obvious choice is to ramp up their involvement in Egypt and Syria. In the case of Egypt, this means a rapprochement and even support for Sisi, in the case of Syria it means more active involvement. While pressure on Russia may lead tit for tat exchanges, greater American support for the rebels in Syria and even a NATO no-fly zone over Syria would do a lot to undermine and blunt Russian interests in the region. Considering all the effort that was put into securing Iraq, I hope the administration can finally use it as a base to arm and train the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Of course, the problem is that this will undoubtedly add to the instability of the region and risks pulling Iran into direct confrontation with the West.  Certainly, Iran has even less incentive to slow its headlong race to obtain nuclear weapons.  It also adds to the EU and America's desire to "solve" the Palestinian question in a way that appeases the Arab world.  All of these things will only add to Israel's strategic concerns and exacerbate regional instability.

Schooled by Putin

Perhaps I am a terrible person for admitting this (and I definitely hope that bloodshed in Ukraine will be averted), but I cannot help but enjoy watching Obama and Kerry getting schooled in Realpolitik by Putin.

"Now Ukraine has emerged as a test of Obama’s argument that, far from weakening American power, he has enhanced it through smarter diplomacy, stronger alliances and a realism untainted by the ideology that guided his predecessor.

It will be a hard argument for him to make, analysts say." (For entire article)

Now that's the understatement of the day! 

By removing American force from the table and shrinking the military to pre-WW II levels, he has only destabilized the post-Soviet world order.  Frankly speaking, Obama has survived this long largely by coasting and lowered expectations.  Kerry has been wrong on pretty much every policy issue he has ever supported.  Perhaps instead of ten unnecessary trips to Israel, he should not have pawned Ukraine off to Biden and paid a visit to Kiev?

Ask and Ye Shall Receive

"Russia will not leave this request without attention." (HERE)

And so it begins.  I want to say that I was wrong about Yanukovych.  I thought he would not give up so easily the second time around and that he would take courage from Russia's support of Assad in Syria.

I was wrong also in thinking that the action would start in the East of Ukraine where there is a clear Russian majority.  In retrospect, it makes a lot of sense that this will begin in Crimea.  If Russia is going to be a world power again, it needs to be able to project power and that means a warm water fleet (cf. Tartus).  Besides, annexing Eastern Ukraine can wait until later.

I was right that this would all begin once the Olympics were over and that Russia would be more than willing to use force if necessary.  However, instead of Hungary in 1956, it looks like it will play out more like Abkhazia in 2008.  In any case, the fact remains that the euphoria in Kiev is premature. This does not look like it will resolve itself anytime soon.

Once again, the "realists" in foreign affairs were proven right as has Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations." As for Fukuyama and the "idealist" crowd, they have once again been proven to be delusional.  Meanwhile, back on the farm, the US continues its downward spiral and slashes the defence budget to pre-WWII levels.  Let's just wait and see how that works out for the world.