As the Crimean situation lurches slowly forward, it is clear that the US and Europe have very little in the way of traction with Russia. There have been some "targeted" sanctions (read: slaps on the wrist) and cancelled participation in the upcoming G-8 meeting in Sochi (read: declining a dinner invitation). Though there is a lot of talk of the need to prevent nations from redrawing borders in the 21st century, Russia is already holding out its gas shipments and other sanctions as retaliation for and European or American moves. I sincerely doubt that there is the stomach in Europe for the fallout that this may entail. Europeans are happy to have their indolent lifestyle subsidized by their governments and their defense outsourced to the United States. They will not risk economic consequences over Crimea.
But respond they must in some way. Since a response in Europe would lead to a counter response, I predict that we will witness Cold War style strategic maneuvering throughout various regional theaters around the world. In fact, while the US and EU have been sleeping on the job, pontificating about democracy, and obsessing about the largely non-existing Arab-Israeli conflict, Russia has been reasserting itself throughout the Middle East. One can cite many examples, but two suffice - Egypt and Syria.
In Egypt, the Obama administration messed up royally. Early in his first term, Obama went to Egypt and chose to do a "reset" with the Arab world by giving a pro-Arab and anti-Israeli speech that embraced the Arab narrative with the regard to the conflict. Shortly after leaving Cairo his administration discontinued the Democracy promotion programs that the Bush administration had put into place when Condoleeza Rice spoke in Cairo. This rightly signaled to Mubarak that America would no longer seek to intervene in Egyptian affairs.
Yet, when the Tahrir Square demonstrations began, the administration quickly dumped Mubarak and the Egyptian military in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood and their fanatical minions. Then in the case of Morsi, the Obama administration fought to restore him to power even though it was clear to almost everyone that being in power had not had a moderating influence on the Brotherhood and that through overreach he had lost the support of the masses. Even worse, the Obama administration chose to label the revolution a coup and cut off some military aid. Not surprisingly, the Russians were there to fill the gap and have just offered Egypt a $2 Bln military aid package with no strings attached. For the historically challenged out there, this brings Egypt back into the Russian fold after over 35 years in the American Camp.
In the case of Syria, Russia has been running interference for Assad since the civil war there started. Putin has not only been supplying the regime with weapons, but most importantly, providing Assad breathing space by vetoing any resolutions in the Security Council. Over the past summer, Putin made the US and France look like his flunkies by outmaneuvering them over the large-scale use of chemical weapons on his civilian population. For now the regime is "cooperating" with the destruction of the chemical weapons (that they claimed did not exist), though they are nowhere near to meeting the agreed upon targets.
Why is this important? If the EU and the US want to get back at Russia, the obvious choice is to ramp up their involvement in Egypt and Syria. In the case of Egypt, this means a rapprochement and even support for Sisi, in the case of Syria it means more active involvement. While pressure on Russia may lead tit for tat exchanges, greater American support for the rebels in Syria and even a NATO no-fly zone over Syria would do a lot to undermine and blunt Russian interests in the region. Considering all the effort that was put into securing Iraq, I hope the administration can finally use it as a base to arm and train the anti-Assad forces in Syria.
Of course, the problem is that this will undoubtedly add to the instability of the region and risks pulling Iran into direct confrontation with the West. Certainly, Iran has even less incentive to slow its headlong race to obtain nuclear weapons. It also adds to the EU and America's desire to "solve" the Palestinian question in a way that appeases the Arab world. All of these things will only add to Israel's strategic concerns and exacerbate regional instability.
But respond they must in some way. Since a response in Europe would lead to a counter response, I predict that we will witness Cold War style strategic maneuvering throughout various regional theaters around the world. In fact, while the US and EU have been sleeping on the job, pontificating about democracy, and obsessing about the largely non-existing Arab-Israeli conflict, Russia has been reasserting itself throughout the Middle East. One can cite many examples, but two suffice - Egypt and Syria.
In Egypt, the Obama administration messed up royally. Early in his first term, Obama went to Egypt and chose to do a "reset" with the Arab world by giving a pro-Arab and anti-Israeli speech that embraced the Arab narrative with the regard to the conflict. Shortly after leaving Cairo his administration discontinued the Democracy promotion programs that the Bush administration had put into place when Condoleeza Rice spoke in Cairo. This rightly signaled to Mubarak that America would no longer seek to intervene in Egyptian affairs.
Yet, when the Tahrir Square demonstrations began, the administration quickly dumped Mubarak and the Egyptian military in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood and their fanatical minions. Then in the case of Morsi, the Obama administration fought to restore him to power even though it was clear to almost everyone that being in power had not had a moderating influence on the Brotherhood and that through overreach he had lost the support of the masses. Even worse, the Obama administration chose to label the revolution a coup and cut off some military aid. Not surprisingly, the Russians were there to fill the gap and have just offered Egypt a $2 Bln military aid package with no strings attached. For the historically challenged out there, this brings Egypt back into the Russian fold after over 35 years in the American Camp.
In the case of Syria, Russia has been running interference for Assad since the civil war there started. Putin has not only been supplying the regime with weapons, but most importantly, providing Assad breathing space by vetoing any resolutions in the Security Council. Over the past summer, Putin made the US and France look like his flunkies by outmaneuvering them over the large-scale use of chemical weapons on his civilian population. For now the regime is "cooperating" with the destruction of the chemical weapons (that they claimed did not exist), though they are nowhere near to meeting the agreed upon targets.
Why is this important? If the EU and the US want to get back at Russia, the obvious choice is to ramp up their involvement in Egypt and Syria. In the case of Egypt, this means a rapprochement and even support for Sisi, in the case of Syria it means more active involvement. While pressure on Russia may lead tit for tat exchanges, greater American support for the rebels in Syria and even a NATO no-fly zone over Syria would do a lot to undermine and blunt Russian interests in the region. Considering all the effort that was put into securing Iraq, I hope the administration can finally use it as a base to arm and train the anti-Assad forces in Syria.
Of course, the problem is that this will undoubtedly add to the instability of the region and risks pulling Iran into direct confrontation with the West. Certainly, Iran has even less incentive to slow its headlong race to obtain nuclear weapons. It also adds to the EU and America's desire to "solve" the Palestinian question in a way that appeases the Arab world. All of these things will only add to Israel's strategic concerns and exacerbate regional instability.
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