Update from Day 8 of the Hamastan War

So, it was actually a good thing that I did not provide an update of the latest events yesterday because the past two days ended up providing a pretty cohesive story – I.e. that of John Kerry’s latest failed attempt to bring peace to the Middle East. As in all of his other unsuccessful efforts (e.g. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, and Afghanistan), it appears clear that this effort is not really going anywhere at the moment.  Let’s recap:

After keeping quiet about events in this corner of the world for about a week, the Obama administration woke up and took notice once Israel began its ground operations.  In particular, after 13 Israeli soldiers were killed, it was clear that the US took a decision to actively engage in an attempt to put an end to the conflagration. 

Since the US has absolutely no leverage with Hamas, it seems that that it was decided at the State Department to try and pressure Israel into making concessions.  First of all, this involved an updated Travel Warning to American citizens.  Though absolutely nothing had changed on the ground between Tuesday and Wednesday, the new advisory urged Americans to postpone all non-essential travel to Israel.  While I completely understand why someone would want to defer their visit at this time, it still seemed suspicious, coming as it did just one day before Kerry’s decision to arrive uninvited.  Apparently Kerry decided that his own visit fell into the category of “essential travel” and so he publicly flouted his own department’s advice and landed in Ben Gurion airport.

Then on the morning of Kerry’s visit, the Federal Aviation Administration sent out a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) not to fly to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv because of the danger of being hit by a Hamas rocket.  To be fair to the FAA, this came in the wake of a direct hit on a building located about one kilometer from the airport , in the town of Yehud.  That said, the timing was once again suspicious.  The fact that State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki admitted that the FAA had consulted with the State Department prior to making the announcement, also made it seem like the fix was in. 

Both decisions immediately carried with them far-reaching consequences.  This is not only a death knell for the Israeli tourism industry (which was suffering already), but the green light for businesses who have interests in Israel to pull out staff and postpone any cooperative projects.  Worse, since most Western countries take their cue from the State Department, this meant that they all, almost immediately, sent out notices to their citizens to get out ASAP. Similarly, the decision by the US to halt flights was replicated by all the major airlines with flights into Israel.  Not only could people no longer travel in or out of Israel, but this meant that even cargo planes were grounded.  In short, these decisions effectively constituted a blockade on Israel and were tantamount to economic warfare.

Almost immediately after these US government decisions made, there was pushback from various quarters.  Of course, the Israeli government protested the decisions and not long after, pro-Israel voices in the US began questioning the administration’s decision making. For example, former Mayor Bloomberg of New York announced that he was flying to Israel on EL AL (the Israeli carrier) to show solidarity with the Israeli people and to show that there really was no reason to cancel all flights to the country. Even Ted Cruz got in on the act and argued essentially what I said above (to the great content of those on the Left).  Nonetheless, the idea apparently was gaining traction because Obama’s advisors trotted him out in front of the cameras to say that there was absolutely no truth to the allegations that any of this was politically motivated.

Not surprisingly, the FAA decision was hailed as a “Great Victory” by Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas spent most of Wednesday trying to score a direct hit on the airport.  Although no missiles even got close, thanks again to the Iron Dome system, this led the FAA to send out a second NOTAM on Thursday morning just hours before Kerry’s arrival for ceasefire talks.  Once again, Kerry ignored his own government’s advice and flew into Israel for talks.  Apparently, Kerry had negotiated with the Qatar government (which is representing Hamas’s interests) that there would be a one week ceasefire and then talks over Hamas’s demands regarding Israel’s blockade of Gaza.  From Israel, Kerry headed to Cairo.

I’m not sure what, if any, quid pro quo the Israeli government promised Kerry, but shortly after he departed Israel, the 24-hour flight ban was suddenly (and magically) lifted.  While we were happy to hear that the NOTAM was canceled, the fact that there was a flip flop in a matter of a few hours, actually only strengthens my conviction that the Obama administration felt that it could do without a distraction at this time and decided to cut its losses.  2016 is not too far away and Jewish voters in the US are definitely watching closely to see how the administration handles this conflict.

In any case, Kerry went off to Egypt to convince Generalissimo Sisi that a ceasefire was in Egypt’s best interests and that the addition of Qatar as a negotiating partner would not diminish Egypt’s role in the region (i.e. bullshit).  In the meantime, the Israeli cabinet met to decide whether it would take up Kerry-Qatar’s ceasefire offer. 

I can tell you that, literally everyone here in Israel that I spoke with were dreading the cabinet decision. There was this depressing sense that the world was pushing Israel to once again play the grown up while giving Hamas a break to further build up its offensive capabilities.  Worse, there was a sense that we have already paid a heavy price and that the army should be given a chance to “take care of business,” as Elvis used to say.  14 years of constant shelling and living in fear of being abducted or killed has taken a great toll on the communities near Gaza and people have given up any hope of resolving this conflict through peaceful dialogue.  That said, everyone was convinced that, due to the unfortunate deaths in the UNRWA school yesterday, the government would cave and the fighting would stop in a day or two at the most.

In the end, the cabinet surprised everyone by unanimously voting to reject this ceasefire offer while agreeing to a 12 hour humanitarian ceasefire tomorrow from 8 AM. Hamas announced that there was a “national consensus” on the need for a ceasefire and accepted the offer.  Israel is probably banking on the fact that Hamas or some of the other outfits in Gaza will breach the ceasefire and Israel will resume with its campaign.  Hamas will undoubtedly spend the time priming the missiles for an 8 PM sound and light show over Tel Aviv.

In the interim, Kerry, who arrived uninvited for discussions on a ceasefire, tried unconvincingly to save face by contending that there never was an actual ceasefire offer per se. As such, he argued, it was misleading to say that it was voted down by the Israeli cabinet. Fortunately for Kerry, pretty much no one was paying any attention so he will be able to continue shamelessly meddling in our affairs and pretending like he has something substantive to offer. To sum up, throughout this whole saga, Kerry and the Obama administration come off looking antagonistic towards Israel as well as both flat-footed and feckless. Poor Kerry - that Nobel Peace Prize looks more distant than ever.

UPDATE: Further proof that Kerry is antagonistic to Israel and feckless, can be found in this report from the Times of Israel.  If he thinks that the problem will be resolved between Turkey and Qatar and without the participation of Israel and Egypt, then he is completely off his rocker. Am afraid that US-Israel affairs may be heading to a new low. See Article.

For some pics of the Gaza tunnels check out YNet.