It is a sad truism that about 95% of what is written about Israel is lazy and uninformed. Nowhere is this more true than when it comes to Israeli politics where the foreign press see things through one lens and one lens only: “The Conflict.”
In actuality, Israeli politics are much more interesting and diverse than Western politics which has the luxury of focusing on social issues to the exclusion of much else. Very few are the Western democracies that are as ethnically and religiously diverse as Israel. Going to the polls today are large communities of Jews (of all stripes), Muslims (Sunni, Sufi, Shiites), Christians (Catholic and Orthodox), Druze, Circassians, Bedouins, Bahais and even the recently recognized Arameans. Add to this the fact that few countries face the kind of existential threats that Israeli deal with on a day to day basis and you have a uniquely complicated patchwork of political parties.
Israeli elections regularly feature parties from the hard right (Jewish Strength and Jewish Home) to the Centrist (Yesh Atid), and the hard left (Meretz and Hadash); from the avowedly secular (Labor) to the devoutly religious (United Torah Judaism and the Islamic Movement); from the ethnically-based parties (Shas and Jewish Home) to the joint Arab and Israeli list (Hadash). To confuse things further there are even single-issue based parties such as the Pirate Party that wants complete net neutrality to the Green Leaf party that wants to legalize marijuana.
Yet, if you have been following the foreign media over the past few years, the prevailing narrative has either been about how the extreme right has irrevocably hijacked the country or that the Israeli public is on an inexorable death march towards apartheid and fascism. Even worse, Israelis have been assailed as uniquely evil for simply going about their daily affairs rather than wringing their hands and renting their garments over the lack of progress in the peace negotiations while, at the same time, the Palestinians have been given a free pass.
As such, it will be interesting to see how the foreign press will spin the election results tonight. It has been pretty clear for about six weeks now that the public is moving to the Left and that Netanyahu and the Likud party will be in the opposition after this election. Of course, since Israel functions under a parliamentary system, it is still possible that Netanyahu can pull this one out of a hat and forge some kind of a coalition, but it seems quite unlikely. The Zionist Camp at the head of Isaac Herzog will more than likely win the most votes and Herzog will serve as the next Prime Minister of Israel.
So what is going on here? A bunch of things. First of all, the Israeli public has Netanyahu fatigue. He has not only been the Prime Minister for the past few years, but he is the longest-serving Prime Minster in the history of Israel. Secondly, there is a massive housing crisis in Israel that has only gotten worse over the past six years. Most young couples cannot even dream of buying a house because it will ruin them financially. Third, the cost of living in Israel is extremely high and there have been mass protests in the past few years about the growing disparity between the rich and the poor. Rather than tackle these social issues head on, Netanyahu played the consummate politician and set up advisory panels only to shelve all of their recommendations. Even with all of Netanyahu’s Sturm and Drang about the security situation, I suspect that he will soon learn that you cannot afford to ignore bread and butter issues that impact people’s everyday lives.
I predict that Netanyahu’s political machinations at the expense of other political parties and his coalition partners will now come back to haunt him. There is a lot of bad blood between him and all of the other parties and I sincerely doubt that the religious parties or the Lapid’s centrist party will be quick to rush into a coalition with him. He has left himself with very little room to maneuver.
In addition, there is a strong sense that Netanyahu botched this past summer’s war by not either ending it much sooner or going much farther towards toppling Hamas. 70 dead soldiers for a bunch of tunnels seems to most like a high price to pay for what will invariably be just a few months of quiet.
From an economic perspective, Netanyahu is in some ways a victim of his own success. With his MBA background, he has been a steady proponent of neoliberal economic ideas. Over the past decade Israel’s GDP growth has been impressive and per capita we know rival Japan. People can see all around them that the economy has expanded, but the increasing income disparities and abysmally low minimum wage is especially jarring in a society that was deeply inspired by socialism not that long ago.
Last but not least, it is said that hubris and pride cometh before the fall. Netanyahu allowed his coalition partner Avigdor Lieberman of the Jewish Home party to pass legislation raising the electoral threshold from 2% to 3.25% in order to destroy the chances of the Arab parties from sending representatives to the Knesset. This has seriously backfired as, against all expectations, ALL of the Arab parties (from Communist to Islamist) joined together in a united list. If Arab Israelis come out and vote in large numbers today, the Arab parties will almost certainly end up being the kingmakers.
At the same time, in what can only be called karmic retribution, it looks increasingly likely that the Jewish Home will fall victim to the new electoral threshold they spearheaded. Over the past two months, the party has been seriously battered by corruption scandals and the completely unhinged comments by Lieberman (he called to behead “disloyal” Arabs). Today, in one final irony, Lieberman was basically reduced to endorsing his archenemies in the Jewish Meretz party in an attempt to pull away voters from the joint Arab list.
Of course, all of the above analysis may prove wrong if the voter turnout is low, if the Arab Sector decides to forego voting, if the Centrist parties get fewer votes than expected, or if Netanyahu's fear-mongering has borne fruit. In the past 24 hours alone there have been major developments in the elections that will not make sense to outsiders even if the reporters here understood enough to report about them. For example, Livni’s announcement that she will not serve as Prime Minister in a rotation with Herzog may convince many people to vote for the Zionist Camp. While she is liked in the West, most Israelis despise Livni and it was widely felt that this was dragging Herzog down a bit. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that this election-eve stunt may have been too little too late.
Unlike American elections, which are usually decided on election night, everything here is likely be in flux for a few more weeks. President Rivlin has the responsibility of choosing a party to form a government and he has already expressed his desire to push for a Unity Government between Netanyahu and Herzog. To put this into perspective, it would be as if Obama and Romney were tasked by the head of the Speaker of the House with joining forces to run the government. ROf course, Rivlin cannot force the matter, but he is not without influence and it will be interesting to see how he tries to press the issue. In any case, I will leave that discussion for another day.